Russian Interindustry Model: actual model version \\ Asiya Brusentseva
Asiya Brusentseva, IEF RAS
Main idea: Actual version of the Russian Interindustry Model
Summary: RIM model has a new statistical base in series of input-output tables extending from 1980 to 2015 in both current and constant prices. The change in total outstanding long-term credit (for periods longer than three years) deflated is one of the explanatory variables in the investment equations of the model. With the new statistical data this variable’s mexval (marginal explanatory value) grew up for some sectors: Textiles, apparel, leather; Chemicals; Pharmaceuticals; Ferrous metals; Machinery; Automobiles, highway transport equipment. For some sectors the variable’s mexval remained relatively stable: Trade; Food, beverages, tobacco; Ships and repair; Airplanes, rockets, and repair; Railroad equipment and its repair; Construction; Hotels and restaurants. For other sectors the variable’s mexval sharply decreased, herewith for six more sectors the variable was excluded from the equations because of its negative coefficient. According to the bank loans distribution, about quarter of total loans directed to the manufacturing sectors, around 15% to agriculture, mining and construction jointly. The long-term credits level stabilized at just over half of total after crisis of 2015.
RIM model has a new statistics of household consumption for 24 items in COICOP classification (plus net purchases abroad) extending from 2011 to 2016. Based on the data the new coefficients were estimated externally for the personal consumption functions in the PADS system. Four groups were highlighted in calculations – Food, Clothing and footwear, Health, Transport, and two subgroups – Proteins, Personal transport.
For reference: A. Brusentseva. Russian Interindustry Model: actual model version. 3 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/project-of-oil-production-increase-in-russia/
This presentation happened 3 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
RIM Data Base
Input-output flow tables for 1980-2015
Input-output flows in current prices
In constant prices 2010
I-O taxes on products used
I-O trade margins
I-O transport margins
I-O imports in constant prices
Energy balances for 1990-2016, International Energy Agency
Household Consumption Expenditures in COICOP classification for 24 items for 2011 – 2016
Bridge matrix to transform 24 items in COICOP classification to 44 items based on NACE Rev. 1.1
