Interregional balance based on rail transport data // Alexander Shirov
Alexander Shirov, Deputy Director IEF RAS, Russia
For reference: A.Shirov. Interregional balance based on rail transport dat. 5 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/interregional-balance-based-on-rail-transport-data/
This presentation happened 5 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
Statistic problems
◾ Official I-O tables for Russia 2011-2015
◾ Regional data of SNA
but
Rosstat believes that it is impossible to develop and publish regional Input-Output tables
Reason:
A large amount of technical work and the inability to identify the production of large corporations
Main conclusions
◾ Economic dynamics in Russia is formed in the conditions of structural and regional imbalance, which is one of the significant limitations of growth in the medium and long term.
◾ The formation of an effective economic policy requires a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of measures at the level of the country’s economy, sectors and regions.
◾ The tools of intersectoral and interregional forecasting should take into account both the impact of macroeconomic dynamics on the regional development and the interregional level of interactions.
◾ In current state of statistics, the most qualitative information on the structure of interregional economic relations can be obtained from the analysis of data on traffic on the railways.
◾ Analysis of the system of interregional interactions at the level of FD shows significant constraints to economic development associated with high significance of the CFD at formation of economic dynamics insufficient use of the potential of old industrial regions of the country, isolation from major production chains of Siberia and the Far East.
◾ The task of analyzing the system of interregional relations requires the expansion of spatial analysis and forecasting tools. In this regard, it is necessary at the methodological and practical level to resolve the issue of expanding the regional part of the national accounts and the formation of official input-output tables, at least at the level of the FD.
