Main-idea: Modelling of IOCs with econometrical approach is presented
Summary: Technological shifts strongly affect production cost structure and lead to change in input-output coefficients (IOCs) in the sectoral rows. The main goal of presented research was to dynamisize the IOCs for some selected industries using econometrical and linear trend approach.
We considered following technological shifts: transport electrification, spread of partly and fully autonomous driving, digitalization, extensive use of composite materials. Each shift can be observed in IOCs matrix: shift leads to replacement of one IOC by other. For example, in electrification case: in “Automobiles and automobile equipment” industry diagonal IOC is replaced by IOC for electrical equipment. This replacement is better seen in relation of IOCs: even if competing IOCs are correlated their relation is growing or declining over time according to technological shift.
We model some of coefficients with the help of G7 package and include them in Russian Interindustry Model. The main result is that technological shifts in past were caught with econometrical approach and were spread in future. That leads to shifts in production cost structure and to change in outputs. The biggest effect was received in digitalization case: the industries affected are communication services, transport and trade and their outputs are different from the base scenario (when IOCs were assumed to remain constant).
For reference: S. Milyakin. Input-output coefficients: econometrical approach. 5 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/input-output-coefficients-for-russia/
This presentation happened 5 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Conclusions and future plans:
1. First step
2. Many coefficients are still linearly dynamicized
3. Some helpful methods can be applied
4. Cost structure in developed countries might be a reference point for cost structure in Russia in future
