German labour market modelling // Marc Ingo Wolter & Anke Mönnig
Marc Ingo Wolter (Anke Mönnig)
GWS — WWW.GWS-OS.COM
For reference: M.I. Wolter (A. Mönnig). Detailed labour market modelling with the INFORUM model INFORGE and next steps. 5 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/germany-labour-market-modelling/
This presentation happened 5 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
German Labour Market in Transition
Number of unemployed persons declined from 4.5 million in 2005 to 1.5 million in 2018
►As a result, the challenges of the German labour market policy have changed:
— Shortage of manpower in occupations
— Impact of structural changes (e.g. digitalization, new mobility regimes, climate change, …) stronger
►To meet these challenges the INFORUM-Model INFORGE was significantly expanded to QINFORGE
— QuBe-Projekt(qualifications and occupations in the future)
QINFORGE – An Overview
Four interdependent blocks
— The demographic module records immigration from 150 countries, birth and mortality rates and migration
— The education module depends on demographic change
—School, vocational training and studies
—Persons leaving the education system are allocated to occupations
— The module of occupational flexibility: transition from trained occupation to practiced occupation.
— INFORGE: labour demand on the sectoral and aggregated level; determined among others by demographic change
► Demographic change influences both sides of the labour market: Labour force and sectoral demand
Conclusions:
► Demographic development is changing the supply and demand of labour simultaneously
► Both sides of the market in an econometric structural model should therefore react to changes in population trends
► Job-specific ageing and changing career choices lead to an acceleration or deceleration of the demographic transition of job-specific supply.
► The construction industry shows that both influences have an effect on this specific labour market at the same time
IO-Modelbuilder face new challenges: much more data!
► IO-Models are able to integrate micro-data(aggregated)
— IO-models have linkages to surveys(consumption, labour, corporations, …)
— IO-Models are like an „economic landscape“ and each survey have a certain position in this landscape
Position can be measured relative to GDP
►INFORUM-Models are able to use more detailed data
— A lot of examples (Italy, US, RU, CN …)
► And: Interdyme is able to handle a huge amount of data
— VAM-files combined with meta-data
