Financial limitations for I/O models // Anton Moiseev
Moiseev Anton
Head of Macrofinancialresearch and forecasting Dept, IEF-RAS,
Leading Researcher of the Center for monetary policy and financial markets of Financial University
This presentation happened 5 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
Outcomes 1
1. Aggregated sectors are hitting the ceiling in their shares.
2. Tertiary industry (services) had long been growing due to secondary (manufacturing) industries contraction. UNTIL recently. Europe: until 2008. Asia –until 2004. Americas –until 2015.
3. Tertiary sector grows now much slower due to primary sector contraction.
4. Heavy restructuring of value added production in certain country usually means transfer of productive capital into other countries.
PQ=MV ?
1. P is not prices or deflator.
2. Q is not volume or constant prices growth.
3. V is not velocity or monetary turnover.
4. Is M a nominal monetary mass? HARDLY.
What is missing? TIME & MOTIVATION
