A more sustainable consumption — scenario analysis for Germany
Ines Thobe, Britta Stöver, Thomas Drosdowski
GWS gws-os.com
SOEB.DE http://www.soeb.de/en/
For reference: I. Thobe, B. Stöver, T. Drosdowski. Impacts of a more sustainable consumption — scenario analysis for Germany. 3 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/sustainable-consumption-scenario-analysis-for-germany/
This presentation happened 3 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
Motivation
— Transition towards a Green Economy (UNEP): resource saving, low carbon, socially inclusive
— Consumers have enormous influence on economic development
GDP: Share of private consumption more than 50%
Final energy consumption:
Almost 30% of final energy consumption excluding mobility are attributed to private households
Almost 30% to transportation –half is due to private households (including company car)
Therefore:
— Potential importance of a more sustainable consumption
— Focus on “deeper” socioeconomic characteristics
— Enlarge analysis -labour market aspects
Modelling approach
►Focus on consumption o fprivate households
► Applying socioeconomic consumption module DEMOS with socioeconomic information on income components and consumption structure for household types
— Based on survey data:
Household Budget Survey (HBS)
(detailed data about income generation and use of income by consumption purposes)
— Microcensus (e.g. number of households, size)
— Linked with economic model INFORGE
Conclusion:
The reconstruction of the economy has an impact on:
— Economic development in general, sectors, qualifications, occupations and therewith on potential earnings
Analyses should look at:
— Not only employment
— But also jobs/ occupations
— As well as redistribution between households
— A combination of I-O and survey data enables to make deeper statements
— Reconstruction is a “big” adventure due to globalization and digitization taking place at the same time
INFORUM can observe and model such a reconstruction “in concert” with all partners and accompany in a consultative way!
