♻ Transition to a low-emission economy in Poland // Mulitisectoral energy model approach
Jurand Skrzypek, MSc, Department of Social-Economic Analyses, Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Faculty of Management and Social Communication, Jagiellonian University in Cracow
Email: jurand.skrzypek@uj.edu.pl
Main-idea: Transition to a low-emission economy — the Polish case
Summary: Transition to a low-emission economy can be defined as simply transformation process – from high-emission fossil fuels utilization to a decentralized low-emission renewables use and high energy efficiency of the economy. Nowadays in Poland, this is the most popular topic in the field of energy, cause Polish energy system is historically based on fossil fuels and its installed capacities are characterized by high degree of use. Presentation shows possible ways of the energy system development and indicates future levels of energy consumption and amounts of CO2 emissions on the basis on two scenarios («BAU» and «PEK» from Polish national energy and climate plan 2021-2030).
For reference: J.Skrzypek. Transition to a low-emission economy in Poland in view of the results of mulitisectoral energy model. 3 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/low-emission-economy-in-poland/
This presentation happened 3 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
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Notes:
Presentation plan:
▪ Introduction.
▪ Current condition of the energy system.
▪ Model structure.
▪ Scenarios of a low-emission transition.
▪ Results.
▪ Conclusions and directions of the further research.
Main features of the MEM model:
▪ combines i-o analysis with econometric methods (economic core);
▪ there is a loop between i-o core and stochastic equations;
▪ has energy (16 energy carriers) and environmental (CO2 emissions) extensions;
▪ distinguishes 77 sectors + HH;
▪ covers mainly the period 1996-2017;
▪ operates on unified unique database, based on Statistics Poland data;
▪ developed in InterDyme software;
Conclusions and directions of the further research
DIRECTIONS OF FURTHER RESEARCH:
1. Inclusion of VCEF (Varied carbon emission factors) scenario.
2. Implementation of changes in energy prices.
3. Comparison of the results (own research vs. policy makers’ analysis).
4. Checking the feasibility of achieving the climate and energy EU objectives.
SUMMARY:
1.Results from MMM with eco-energy extension can enrich the discussion about the future of Polish energy system.
2. There is substantial difference between ODN and PEK simulation results, both in energy and emission dimension.
3. Introducing PEK scenario into the national energy policy can really change the dramatic situation in Polish energy system and could help the economy enter the low-emission track.
