How will increase in Arctic cargo turnover affect the development of the Russian economy?
Yuliya Pankova — Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of SB RAS Novosibirsk State University
Summary: In May 2018, the Presidential Decree “On National Goals and Strategic Tasks of the Development of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2024” was signed, which states that the volume of cargo transportation via the Arctic Transport Corridor in 2024 will amount to 80 million tons. That is, a number of investment projects will be implemented. Each of them will create a complex of different effects. Direct effects are evaluated at the feasibility study stage. At the same time, there are no assessments of the impact of an increase in the Arctic Transport Corridor cargo turnover on the development of the economy. Indirect (interindustry and interregional) effects have not been taken into account.
Accordingly, to evaluate the indirect effects, an optimization interindustry interregional model was used. The need to use the interregional model precisely is because of differences between subjects within the country and the relationship of projects to specific regions.
In total, 3 scenarios of the development of the country’s economy were formed. The “basic” scenario assumes a completely inertial development of the country. The intensification of cargo traffic in the Arctic Transport Corridor does not occur. The “transit” scenario imitates a situation where there is an increase in international container traffic. The “export” scenario, in addition to international transit, also simulates the growth of cargo turnover in the Arctic Transport Corridor due to the extraction and export of resources by Russia by 84 million tons.
In the “Transit” scenario relative to the “Basic”, the final consumption by 2030 is less by 7 billion rubles. If we compare the “Export” and “Transit” scenarios in 2030, then the final consumption in the first is 4.1 billion rubles higher. In other words, a positive national economic effect was obtained. But the export-raw model of the country’s economy is being strengthened. In addition, the growth of raw material production in the regions of the Russian Federation in some cases is accompanied by a decrease in the growth of production sectors and an increase in imports in the same industries. We can also talk about the localization of the effects of projects on the territory of their implementation. The connection between intensively developing Arctic regions and the south does not increase. In addition, the results obtained indicate an increase in interregional differentiation in terms of final consumption and the volume of investment in fixed assets.
For reference: Y. Pankova. Assessing the Prospects for the Formation
of the Arctic Transport Corridor. 5 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/arctic-transport-corridor/
Assessment of the impact of increase in ATC cargo turnover on the economy
Algorithm:
1. Selection and analysis of the investment projects
2. Collection of data for using the optimization multiregional input-output model (output, project period, etc.)
3. Calculation of the variant (basic scenario) of the national economic forecast without the implementation of the investment projects
4. Calculations of the variant (different scenario) of the national economic forecast taking into account conditions and consequences of the implementation of the investment projects
5. Comparison of the results of the forecast variants and determination of indirect effects (difference in the values of the objective function)
Scenarios of development of the Arctic Transport Corridor
BASIC
• Inertial development of the country
• Intensification of cargo traffic in the ATC does not occur
• The likelihood of such a scenario being implemented is almost zero
• it is only needed as a comparison with other scenarios
TRANSIT
• Increasing in international container traffic by 5 million tons in the ATC
• Commissioning of new nuclear icebreakers (“Siberia”, ”Ural” and
“Leader”; total investment – 269 bln rub)
• Icebreaker assistance of transit vessels (the amount is estimated by calculating the fees, according to the “Rules of navigation in the waters of
the Northern Sea Route” – 6.52 bln rub annually )
EXPORT
• Transit scenario
+
• Implementation of a number of investment (resource and infrastructure) projects; the total investment exceeds 2.6 trln rub
• Increasing resources extraction in the Arctic by 84 mln tons
• Increasing export of resources
• Growth of cargo turnover in the ATC
